Mind WondersPlay

How Your Brain ThinksProbability

The Linda Problem

A more detailed story feels more likely, even when it can't be

When a prediction fits the story in your head perfectly, can the extra detail actually make the event less likely?

You'll find out

  • Uncover Linda's tempting answer
  • See why the larger group wins
  • Spot extra conditions in forecasts

Why it matters

See when a vivid prediction asks more of reality and judge what you can safely count on.

About 3 min6 interactive slides · 5 questionsLesson 45 · Zone 5

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